The Stochastic Ice Sheet Project is funded by the Heising-Simons Foundation. This project aims to answer two main scientific questions:
- What is the uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise from ice sheet melt due to natural fluctuations in climate and ice sheet processes?
- To what extent can we attribute recent ice sheet evolution to climate change?
To answer these questions, we will develop a first-of-its kind stochastic ice sheet model, in which the detailed simulations of surface mass balance, ocean melt, and calving are replaced by noisy representations based on observations and high-fidelity models. This framework will then be used to simulate an ensemble of possible scenarios for ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, during the recent past and into the future. The results will be two-fold: the first systematic assessment of uncertainty in sea level projections due to natural fluctuations in ice sheet and climatic processes, and the first attribution study disentangling the role of climate change from natural variability within the Earth system in causing the rapid increase in ice loss from Greenland observed over the last several decades.
Collaborators: Prof. Helene Seroussi (Dartmouth College), Prof. Andrew Thompson (Caltech)
Current and past researchers: Dr. Vincent Verjans (EAS Postdoctoral Fellow), Aminat Ambeolorun (EAS PhD Student) Dr. Lizz Ultee (Former EAS Postdoctoral Fellow)